Homeowner Confidence Survey

According to the Zillow Q4 Homeowner Confidence Survey, American homeowners’ confidence in their own homes’ values during the fourth quarter fell to the lowest level in seven quarters, with just one in five (20 percent) believing their own homes’ values increased during 2009. But in reality, 28 percent of all homes increased in value, according to Zillow’s Q4 Real Estate Market Reports. However, homeowners continue to be optimistic about the future, with 38 percent believing their own homes’ values will increase in the next six months.

Topline Results

• For the first time since the survey was first fielded in Q2 2008, homeowners were overly cynical about the values of their own homes, with a Misperception Index of -2 (an Index of 0 would indicate homeowner perceptions are aligned with reality; a negative Index indicates they are overly cynical)
• Homeowners are more optimistic about the future: Fewer than one in six (14 percent) believe their own homes’ values will decrease in the next six months.
• Homeowners in the Northeast and West were the most cynical about the performance of their own homes’ values in the last year, with Misperception Indexes of -14 and -5, respectively.

Methodology:

The survey was conducted online by Harris Interactive within the United States on behalf of Zillow.com between January 8 and January 12, 2010 among 2,215 adults ages 18+, of whom 1,296 are homeowners. Unless otherwise indicated, all percentages are based out of homeowners who think the value of their home has increased, decreased or remained the same since this time last year. Percentages have been recalculated to exclude “not sure” or “don’t know” and/or not applicable responses, and to exclude homeowners who already had their home for sale. This online survey is not based on a probability sample and therefore no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated. A full methodology, including weighting variables, is available.

Zillow Home Value Misperception Index measures the gap between homeowner perception of changes in their home’s value, and actual home value changes.  The Misperception Index is calculated from an adjusted base of homeowners who think their home value changed – increased or decreased – and excludes “not sure” AND “remained the same” responses.  The Index is the difference between those who think their home’s value increased (29% adjusted, from Survey) and the percent of U.S. homes that actually increased (30% adjusted, Zillow Q4 data) in value year-over-year on an adjusted base of home values that changed by more or less than one percent (excludes homes that remained the same within one percent).  Zillow Q4 data is based on analysis of Q4 Real Estate Market Reports.

Additional Resources:

For additional information about the Q4 Homeowner Confidence Survey, check out the press release, blog post, PDF, and graphics (see below). To download the graphics in larger format or request an interview, contact Zillow PR at press@zillow.com or 206-757-2701.