U.S. Home Value Appreciation Rate Slows in First Quarter, But Values in Some Local Markets Remain at a Boil
Unsustainably High Appreciation Continues in Phoenix, Las Vegas and California, But National Moderation Could Indicate Stabilization, According to First Quarter Zillow Real Estate Market Reports
SEATTLE, April 25, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The national housing market showed signs of moderation in the first quarter after months of robust and largely unsustainable annual home value appreciation. The Zillow® Home Value Index (ZHVI)[i] rose to $157,600 as of the end of the first quarter, up 5.1 percent year-over-year and 0.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2012, according to the first quarter Zillow Real Estate Market Reports[ii].
In March, U.S. home values rose for the 16th consecutive month, though last month represented the second straight month of slowing annual appreciation. Underscoring this slowdown, home value appreciation in the first quarter was 0.5 percent compared to 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.
Historically, housing markets can expect annual home value appreciation of roughly 3 percent, according to Zillow research. Looking ahead, the Zillow Home Value Forecast[iii] shows national home values increasing by 3.2 percent through March 2014, an annual appreciation rate more in line with historic norms.
But in some local markets, home values continue to rise at a breakneck pace. Five metros covered by Zillow experienced year-over-year appreciation of more than 20 percent: Phoenix (up 24 percent), Las Vegas (up 22.3 percent), San Jose (up 22.1 percent), San Francisco (up 21.4 percent) and Sacramento (up 20.1 percent).
"The national housing market has rebounded strongly over the past year. But the sometimes dramatic home value run-ups experienced during these months were never expected to be sustainable, and recent slowdowns are indicative of a market that is slowly finding its natural level," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. "Looking forward, we expect annual home value appreciation to continue to slow, as more inventory comes up for sale. But pockets of very rapid appreciation will remain, a troubling sign of volatility and a potential future headache as affordability is compromised and homes begin to look much more expensive to average buyers. This affordability issue may become acute in many markets in a couple years once mortgage rates begin to return again to normal levels."
Further underscoring the unevenness of the recovery, seven of the top 30 metro markets covered by Zillow saw a decline in home values in the first quarter. The New York metro saw a decline of 0.3% in home values after three consecutive quarters of positive appreciation, the first quarterly decline in that metro since the first quarter of 2012. Chicago saw the greatest home value depreciation, with values falling 1.4% in the quarter after a flat fourth quarter of 2012.
Foreclosure rates rose in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter, likely because of a seasonal acceleration after the traditionally slow holiday period. A total of 5.11 out of every 10,000 homes were foreclosed upon in the first quarter, down 1.3 homes per 10,000 from the fourth quarter, and down 2.4 homes per 10,000 year-over-year.
In the rental market, national rents rose 0.9 percent in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter, and were up 4.9 percent over the first quarter of 2012. The Zillow Rent Index (ZRI)[iv] stood at $1,290 at the end of March.
Zillow, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z) operates the largest home-related marketplaces on mobile and the Web, with a complementary portfolio of brands and products that help people find vital information about homes, and connect with the best local professionals. In addition, Zillow operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow's Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. Dr. Humphries and his team of economists and data analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more than 350 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow also sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which asks more than 100 leading economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists to predict the path of the Zillow Home Value Index over the next five years. The Zillow, Inc. portfolio includes Zillow.com®, Zillow Mobile, Zillow Mortgage Marketplace, Zillow Rentals, Zillow Digs™, Postlets®, Diverse Solutions®, Buyfolio™, Mortech™ and HotPads™. The company is headquartered in Seattle.
Zillow.com, Zillow, Zestimate, Postlets and Diverse Solutions are registered trademarks of Zillow, Inc. Buyfolio, Mortech, HotPads and Digs are trademarks of Zillow, Inc.
[i] The Zillow Home Value Index is the median Zestimate® valuation for a given geographic area on a given day and includes the value of all single-family residences, condominiums and cooperatives, regardless of whether they sold within a given period. It is expressed in dollars, and seasonally adjusted.
SOURCE Zillow, Inc.