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Five Years After Housing Market Peak, Bumpy Road Toward Stabilization Underway As Home Values Show Recent Rise in Many Markets

Nationally, Home Values Continue to Show Slight Decline in Q2; Negative Equity Falls Slightly, According to Q2 2011 Zillow® Real Estate Market Reports

Key facts:

- U.S. home values fell 6.2 percent year-over-year, with 142 of 154 markets in Zillow's report showing declines.

- Recent trends were more positive, with U.S. home values falling 0.4 percent from the first to the second quarter, the smallest quarterly decline in more than four years. Nearly two-thirds (94) of 154 markets in Zillow's report experienced home value app

- Negative equity fell slightly to 26.8 percent of single-family homes with mortgages from 28.4 percent in the first quarter.

- Despite positive signs in the short term, Zillow's Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries continues to predict a true bottom in home values in 2012, at the earliest, because of factors like foreclosures, negative equity and fluctuations in demand for homes.

SEATTLE, Aug. 9, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Home values in the United States fell 0.4 percent from the first to the second quarter of 2011, the smallest quarterly decline in more than four years, according to Zillow's second quarter Real Estate Market Reports(1). The Zillow Home Value Index(2) fell 6.2 percent year-over-year to $171,600. Home values have fallen 28.8 percent since they peaked in June 2006.

Regionally, home values fell on a year-over-year basis in 142 of the 154 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) covered by Zillow and were flat in eight. In the short term, however, nearly two-thirds of MSAs (94 of 154) experienced home value appreciation, with the Zillow Home Value Index rising from the first to the second quarter.

Negative equity fell slightly to 26.8 percent of single-family homeowners with mortgages in the second quarter, down from 28.4 percent in the first. A homeowner is in negative equity when they owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth.

Meanwhile, the rate of foreclosure re-sales declined from its peak in March 2011, when 21.4 percent of all sales were foreclosure re-sales. In June, 19.7 percent of sales were foreclosure re-sales.

"While there are many positive signs in the second quarter, and it is clear the post-tax credit free-fall of home values is over, we're not out of the woods yet," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. "It is very encouraging that two-thirds of markets in our report experienced home value appreciation, but we have to remember that this is coming on the heels of one of the worst quarters since the housing recession began.

"We expect a bumpy road ahead. There will be many ups and downs in home values before this is over, and we continue to expect a true bottom in 2012, at the earliest. There are still hazards in the form of a full foreclosure pipeline, high negative equity and fluctuations in demand."

While nearly two-thirds of markets showed appreciation from the first to the second quarter of 2011, far fewer have recorded a longer period of stabilization. Only 25 of the 154 MSAs covered in Zillow's Real Estate Market Reports showed two consecutive quarters of appreciation. Among those MSAs were Washington, D.C., where the median home value increased 1.7 percent from the first to the second quarter after increasing 0.2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the first of 2011; and Pittsburgh, where home values increased 2.8 percent from the first to the second quarter, and increased 0.1 percent from the fourth to the first quarter.  

   

Largest 25 Metropolitan Statistical Areas Covered by Zillow

Zillow Home Value Index

   

Q2 2011

QoQ Change

YoY Change

Change From Peak

Negative Equity*

 

United States

$171,600

-0.4%

-6.2%

-28.8%

26.8%

 

New York, N.Y.

$347,100

-0.3%

-4.7%

-24.3%

17.1%

 

Los Angeles, Calif.

$389,400

-0.5%

-7.2%

-35.7%

20.1%

 

Chicago, Ill.

$172,200

0.3%

-11.4%

-36.7%

42.2%

 

Dallas, Tex.

$128,600

1.6%

-4%

-10.8%

n/a

 

Philadelphia, Pa.

$192,100

0.1%

-6.9%

-18.8%

19.1%

 

Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

$140,900

1.1%

-5.3%

-54.2%

45.8%

 

Washington, D.C.

$316,500

1.7%

-3%

-27.9%

24.9%

 

Atlanta, Ga.

$124,200

0.4%

-11.5%

-32%

53.8%

 

Detroit, Mich.

$74,200

2.1%

-10.4%

-53.2%

32.9%

 

Boston, Mass.

$318,700

2.1%

-2.8%

-20.6%

11.8%

 

San Francisco, Calif.

$479,300

0.5%

-7.8%

-31.9%

22.2%

 

Phoenix, Ariz.

$122,800

-2.4%

-10.4%

-56.5%

67.6%

 

Riverside, Calif.

$185,700

-0.8%

-3.9%

-53.9%

50.2%

 

Seattle, Wash.

$262,400

0.3%

-8%

-31.2%

33.9%

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn.

$160,800

-0.6%

-12.6%

-35%

n/a

 

San Diego, Calif.

$350,400

-0.2%

-5.8%

-34.7%

25%

 

St. Louis, Mo.

$131,400

0%

-8.3%

-16.5%

28.5%

 

Tampa, Fla.

$108,600

-0.4%

-8.7%

-49.9%

56.4%

 

Baltimore, Md.

$222,700

0.6%

-6.3%

-26.1%

28.2%

 

Denver, Colo.

$196,300

0.5%

-6.9%

-15.5%

39.8%

 

Pittsburgh, Pa.

$110,400

2.8%

2.7%

-1%

6.7%

 

Portland, Ore.

$210,400

1.5%

-7.2%

-28.2%

33.1%

 

Cleveland, Ohio

$111,700

0.8%

-6.5%

-22.8%

37.2%

 

Sacramento, Calif.

$203,100

-2.7%

-12.5%

-51.2%

49.5%

 

Orlando, Fla.

$117,900

0.5%

-6.1%

-53.9%

n/a

 

*Negative equity refers to the % of single-family homes with mortgages.

 
   
           

 

The full national report, in its interactive format, will be available at www.zillow.com/local-info on Tuesday, Aug. 9.  Additionally, in most areas data is available at the state, metro, county, city, ZIP and neighborhood level.

About Zillow, Inc.

Zillow is a real estate information marketplace providing vital information about homes, real estate listings and mortgages through its websites and mobile applications, enabling homeowners, buyers, sellers and renters to connect with real estate and mortgage professionals best suited to meet their needs. Zillow, Inc. operates Zillow.com®, Zillow Mortgage Marketplace and Zillow Mobile. With 23.2 million unique users of its websites and mobile applications during July 2011, Zillow's goal is to help people make intelligent decisions about homes in every stage of their lives -- home buying, selling, renting, remodeling and financing. The company is headquartered in Seattle.

Zillow.com, Zillow and Zestimate are registered trademarks of Zillow, Inc.

(1) The data in Zillow's Real Estate Market Reports is aggregated from public sources by a number of data providers for 154 metropolitan statistical areas dating back to 1996. Mortgage and home loan data is typically recorded in each county and publicly available through a county recorder's office.

(2) The Zillow Home Value Index is the median Zestimate® valuation for a given geographic area on a given day and includes the value of all single-family residences, condominiums and cooperatives, regardless of whether they sold within a given period. The Home Value Index at the national level is calculated using a weighted average of the median home value for each county and includes data from 440 metropolitan statistical areas. It is expressed in dollars and is for a particular geographic region.

SOURCE Zillow, Inc.


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