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Shift Toward Seasonal Norms Could Benefit Buyers, Renters

Though still hot, easing competition in the housing market could reward persistent shoppers

- A less competitive fall market could mean savings for buyers and additional time to decide on a purchase.

- Rent growth slows in line with seasonal norms, with rents falling in eight major metros.

- Although monthly home value appreciation continues to ease, annual appreciation of 19.2% breaks new records.

Nov 18, 2021

SEATTLE, Nov. 18, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- After ignoring the annual autumn memo to cool down last year, the housing market is finally showing signs of moderation typically seen in the fall, according to Zillow's® latest market report1

"Home buyers shopping this fall shouldn't expect the same frenzied demand that triggered bidding wars on listings this spring and summer," said Zillow senior economist Jeff Tucker. "The normal seasonal slowdown of autumn has returned, when many families are busy with back-to-school activities and planning for the holidays. Buyers can expect less competition, meaning more time to decide on a house and the potential for prices to fall on listings they've saved on Zillow."  

Although the market is still far hotter than usual, October witnessed normal fall trends of decelerating growth for rents, declining list prices, longer times on market for listings and more homes receiving price cuts before sale. These are indications that seasonality is returning to replace the unfettered growth seen over the past year and a half. 

Home value appreciation slowed in October for the third month in a row, as home values rose 1.3% over September, slower than the all-time high monthly appreciation of 2% in July. The typical home value in the U.S. measured by the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) is now up to $312,728. Annual growth of 19.2% ($50,405) is the highest in Zillow data reaching back to 2000. 

Home values didn't drop in any of the 50 largest U.S. metros, but monthly home value growth decelerated in 42 of them. The slowest monthly growth was seen in Milwaukee (0.1%), San Francisco (0.3%), Buffalo (0.3%) and St. Louis (0.4%), while the fastest was in Raleigh (2.7%), Nashville (2.4%) and Atlanta (2.3%). The average October monthly appreciation in the U.S. from 2015 through 2019 was 0.4%.

Less frenzied market can benefit buyers
Autumn and winter home shopping seasons usually feature fewer homes on the market, along with less competition. The October report shows inventory down 17.4% from last year and contracting by 1.1% since September, after rising from May through September. 

Longer time on the market for listings means buyers have more time to weigh their options and schedule home inspections before purchasing. October listings typically spent 10 days on the market, compared to nine in September and seven in April, May and June. 

Median list prices have fallen since July, and the share of homes that saw a price cut before selling rose slightly over September, as well, now standing at 14.7% — nearly double the year's low point in April. The most recent data on the share of homes that sold above list price shows a monthly decline of 6.6% in September to 47.2%, down from a peak of 51.3% in July. 

In the midst of a surge in demand last fall, the share of listings with a price cut began a long slide downward in October of 2020, while the share of homes sold above list price was climbing skyward. 

Rent growth slows and rents fall in some metros
Rent growth continued on its path of deceleration in October, registering 0.8% month-over-month growth compared to a record high of 2.1% in July. This slowing, too, is in line with seasonal norms — October had the lowest monthly rent appreciation in 2018 and 2019 and saw no growth in 2020 as rents recovered from the shock of the pandemic. Still, the rapid rise in rents since March has pushed annual growth to 14.3%, the highest rate in the series' history, which began in 2015. Typical rents in the U.S. are $1,873, now $234 higher than last October. 

Rents fell from September in eight of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas, compared to just one the month before. The largest monthly drops were in Hartford (-1%), Baltimore (-0.6%) and San Jose (-0.5%), while the largest gains came from Miami (2%), Salt Lake City (1.9%) and Orlando (1.8%). 

Metropolitan Area*

Zillow Home Value Index

(ZHVI)

ZHVI – Year Over Year Change 

Days on Market

Share of Listings with a Price Cut 

Zillow Observed Rent Index

(ZORI) 

ZORI – Month Over Month Change

United States

$312,728

19.2%

10

14.7%

$1,873

0.8%

New York, NY

$569,191

13.8%

34


$2,712

1.0%

Los Angeles, CA

$851,308

17.9%

12

11.2%

$2,712

0.9%

Chicago, IL

$286,280

13.8%

12

21.3%

$1,698

0.1%

Dallas–Fort Worth, TX

$332,118

23.3%

17


$1,707

0.5%

Philadelphia, PA

$309,597

16.0%

10

17.2%

$1,747

0.9%

Houston, TX

$272,066

18.8%

13


$1,539

0.6%

Washington, D.C.

$520,598

12.8%

9

18.5%

$2,131

0.6%

Miami–Fort Lauderdale, FL

$381,256

19.7%

15

9.8%

$2,479

2.0%

Atlanta, GA

$322,123

24.7%

8

13.2%

$1,882

1.0%

Boston, MA

$605,224

15.5%

8

13.1%

$2,517

0.8%

San Francisco, CA

$1,346,995

17.0%

12

9.9%

$3,082

0.1%

Detroit, MI

$225,066

17.1%

10

17.3%

$1,394

0.9%

Riverside, CA

$525,941

27.7%

12

12.4%

$2,455

0.2%

Phoenix, AZ

$418,170

32.7%

11

13.7%

$1,848

1.1%

Seattle, WA

$695,058

21.8%

7

12.5%

$2,181

0.2%

Minneapolis–St. Paul, MN

$349,595

13.6%

16

16.8%

$1,606

-0.2%

San Diego, CA

$814,289

25.1%

9

13.2%

$2,717

1.3%

St. Louis, MO

$220,861

14.6%

6

16.1%

$1,201

0.3%

Tampa, FL

$316,379

28.7%

6

15.8%

$1,973

1.4%

Baltimore, MD

$349,655

12.8%

8

18.5%

$1,745

-0.6%

Denver, CO

$574,734

22.0%

6

17.2%

$1,907

-0.1%

Pittsburgh, PA

$200,185

17.4%

9

20.0%

$1,279

0.2%

Portland, OR

$532,300

19.2%

7

17.1%

$1,831

-0.1%

Charlotte, NC

$324,163

24.8%

6

14.2%

$1,695

0.5%

Sacramento, CA

$567,023

24.0%

8


$2,220

0.5%

San Antonio, TX

$265,602

20.2%

9

16.0%

$1,387

0.0%

Orlando, FL

$328,555

20.3%

8

13.6%

$1,856

1.8%

Cincinnati, OH

$236,963

17.3%

5

17.5%

$1,430

1.1%

Cleveland, OH

$199,110

16.7%

7

17.4%

$1,228

-0.2%

Kansas City, MO

$259,200

18.5%

4

15.6%

$1,247

1.1%

Las Vegas, NV

$385,325

25.0%

9

16.2%

$1,786

0.7%

Columbus, OH

$266,594

16.9%

4

17.8%

$1,384

0.9%

Indianapolis, IN

$235,663

18.1%

5

16.1%

$1,407

0.1%

San Jose, CA

$1,493,020

16.7%

14

9.4%

$3,087

-0.5%

Austin, TX

$527,134

44.3%

18

13.9%

$1,785

0.6%

Virginia Beach, VA

$295,626

14.6%

21


$1,555

0.8%

Nashville, TN

$374,406

22.9%

5


$1,785

0.9%

Providence, RI

$411,467

20.1%

10

13.3%

$1,800

0.4%

Milwaukee, WI

$251,032

15.5%

33

15.6%

$1,148

-0.1%

Jacksonville, FL

$308,552

24.9%

7

14.9%

$1,694

0.5%

Memphis, TN

$201,846

18.4%

20


$1,441

0.9%

Oklahoma City, OK

$192,346

14.3%

6


$1,221

0.2%

Louisville–Jefferson County, KY

$220,485

13.9%

6

19.1%

$1,103

0.0%

Hartford, CT

$294,010

16.6%

8

15.3%

$1,546

-1.0%

Richmond, VA

$298,298

14.5%

6


$1,471

1.0%

New Orleans, LA

$249,800

13.7%

12

13.9%

$1,346

0.2%

Buffalo, NY

$225,277

22.2%

11

14.2%

$1,149

0.3%

Raleigh, NC

$384,170

28.3%

5

10.0%

$1,661

0.6%

Birmingham, AL

$212,919

15.6%

6

12.1%

$1,310

0.5%

Salt Lake City, UT

$539,824

28.4%

7

19.0%

$1,584

1.9%

*

Table ordered by market size 



1

 The Zillow Real Estate Market Reports are monthly overviews of the national and local real estate markets. The reports are compiled by Zillow Real Estate Research. For more information, visit www.zillow.com/research. The data in the Zillow Real Estate Market Reports is aggregated from public sources by a number of data providers for 928 metropolitan and micropolitan areas, dating back to 1996. Mortgage and home loan data is typically recorded in each county and publicly available through a county recorder's office. All current monthly data at the national, state, metro, city, ZIP code and neighborhood levels can be accessed at www.zillow.com/research/data.

About Zillow Group

Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make it easier to unlock life's next chapter. 

As the most visited real estate website in the United States, Zillow® and its affiliates offer customers an on-demand experience for selling, buying, renting or financing with transparency and nearly seamless end-to-end service. Zillow Offers® buys and sells homes directly in dozens of markets across the country, allowing sellers control over their timeline. Zillow Home Loans™, our affiliate lender, provides our customers with an easy option to get pre-approved and secure financing for their next home purchase. Zillow recently launched Zillow Homes, Inc., a licensed brokerage entity, to streamline Zillow Offers transactions.  

Zillow Group's brands, affiliates and subsidiaries include Zillow®; Zillow Offers®; Zillow Premier Agent®; Zillow Home Loans™; Zillow Closing Services™; Zillow Homes, Inc.; Trulia®; Out East®; StreetEasy® and HotPads®. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender, NMLS #10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). 

 

SOURCE Zillow

For further information: Mark Stayton, Zillow, press@zillow.com