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New Listings are Ticking Up, With High-End Homes Beginning to Rally After Tumbling the Most

For-sale listings of more affordable homes have been less affected by the slowdown, and now make up a larger-than-usual share of the market

- New listings remain down 39% from last year, but have been rising for the past three weeks, perhaps in response to improved buyer demand; newly pending sales are up 7% from the previous week.

- Sellers did not pull back equally -- new listings of the most expensive homes are down by 46%, while the least expensive homes are down 32%.

- That composition change has caused median list prices to grow more slowly than they were before the coronavirus pandemic hit the U.S.

May 12, 2020

SEATTLE, May 12, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- New listings of high-end homes dropped the farthest and fastest when the coronavirus pandemic hit the U.S., while affordable listings were less affected, a new Zillow® analysis shows. But as new listings have increased in recent weeks in response to strong buyer demand, more high-end homes are coming onto the market than any other type. 

New listings of the most-expensive homes -- the top fifth of the market -- were the first to drop off and fell below last year's rate before homes in other price tiers. Expensive homes also had the steepest fall of any price tier, dropping 51.4% below last year by mid-April. Meanwhile, listings of the most-affordable homes -- where there typically is the tightest inventory -- have fallen 32.1% year over year at their lowest point. 

The number of new for-sale listings overall has shown improvement, up 5.9% last week from the previous week. New listings of the most-expensive homes -- after dropping the most in March -- are now seeing the biggest resurgence, up 8%. The uptick is likely a sign sellers are feeling more confident because of improving buyer demand, as newly pending sales have also jumped up during the same period.

The split in listing behavior by price likely has to do with the reasons sellers typically list them for sale. Younger sellers, who tend to sell less-expensive homes, typically face more urgency when selling -- they're more likely to have a job change or new child that prompts a desire to movei. Sellers with higher-priced homes may have more flexibility in their decision, leading many to take a wait-and-see approach in the early days of the pandemic. 

"Many sellers with the flexibility to delay or temporarily remove listings have opted to do so, perhaps waiting out the uncertainty. Now that more buyers are in the market, those sellers are wading back in, joining those who had remained motivated to sell for any number of life reasons and adapted with virtual tools and social distancing," said Skylar Olsen, senior principal economist at Zillow. "We have not yet seen prices affected, though we expect them to fall modestly on a national level as the pandemic plays out."

Despite recent increases, the current rate of new listings is more typical of mid-December than the spring -- usually the busiest time of the year for home shopping. Total inventory remains low as more homes are selling than in early April. Total inventory is down 16.7% year over year -- the biggest yearly drop since the pandemic began in the U.S. -- and down 1.6% weekly as of the seven days ending May 3.

Limited inventory and the apparent uptick in demand is keeping pressure on prices, and Zillow expects only a moderate 2-3% fall in home prices through the end of 2020. The median list price of homes on the market was $320,466 as of May 3, 0.4% higher than a year ago. Two months ago, list prices were up 3.3% annually. Fewer high-end listings and fewer new listings overall are contributing to the relative softness in list prices.  

Metropolitan
Area

New
Listings -
YOY
Change
(Total)

New
Listings -
YOY
Change
(Top Fifth)

New Listings
- YOY
Change
(Bottom Fifth)

Newly
Pending
Listings -
WOW
Change

Median List
Price

Median
List Price -
YOY
Change

United States

-39.2%

-45.8%

-32.1%

6.8%

$320,466

0.4%

New York, NY

-62.3%

-66.8%

-54.1%

3.0%

$592,183

2.9%

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

-38.6%

-38.1%

-34.9%

13.1%

$865,915

6.5%

Chicago, IL

-40.7%

-45.3%

-27.4%

5.7%

$328,720

-5.3%

Dallas-Fort Worth, TX

-21.6%

-16.3%

-6.2%

6.9%

$341,877

-4.9%

Philadelphia, PA

-51.2%

-57.5%

-37.7%

0.6%

$295,395

4.4%

Houston, TX

-42.6%

-47.9%

-21.9%

7.9%

$323,561

-3.2%

Washington, DC

-42.4%

-45.3%

-33.5%

-2.7%

$506,985

2.7%

Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL

-35.0%

-43.7%

-29.1%

4.4%

$395,470

-0.9%

Atlanta, GA

-26.3%

-33.2%

-25.3%

6.8%

$329,864

-3.9%

Boston, MA

-51.8%

-53.8%

-41.2%

4.4%

$601,636

1.6%

San Francisco, CA

-37.1%

-44.2%

-34.0%

N/A

$904,188

-0.9%

Detroit, MI

-60.9%

-61.3%

-51.9%

12.4%

$239,946

-9.6%

Riverside, CA

-37.3%

-41.7%

-37.5%

24.4%

$424,623

1.5%

Phoenix, AZ

-26.9%

-23.2%

-20.5%

2.5%

$374,957

3.2%

Seattle, WA

-49.4%

-47.4%

-46.3%

2.2%

$650,023

0.9%

Minneapolis-St Paul, MN

-26.2%

-35.2%

-26.4%

N/A

$378,386

0.2%

San Diego, CA

-36.0%

-45.5%

-12.1%

13.5%

$749,810

0.5%

St. Louis, MO

-33.8%

-35.6%

-5.7%

-3.3%

$248,129

3.5%

Tampa, FL

-33.3%

-39.2%

-23.9%

N/A

$281,511

-1.8%

Baltimore, MD

-42.3%

-46.9%

-23.6%

3.5%

$335,797

-3.4%

Denver, CO

-28.1%

-21.9%

-29.8%

59.1%

$530,605

2.0%

Pittsburgh, PA

-59.8%

-59.5%

-59.0%

12.5%

$194,210

2.8%

Portland, OR

-48.0%

-56.9%

-40.0%

13.0%

$480,584

-2.0%

Charlotte, NC

-30.3%

-28.1%

-12.3%

9.7%

$354,994

-0.2%

Sacramento, CA

-38.2%

-44.1%

-34.6%

6.2%

$519,638

3.6%

San Antonio, TX

-27.0%

-33.9%

-27.7%

N/A

$290,031

-0.2%

Orlando, FL

-36.4%

-33.1%

-37.2%

N/A

$315,584

-2.2%

Cincinnati, OH

-35.1%

-35.5%

-28.8%

-10.6%

$314,006

10.0%

Cleveland, OH

-40.1%

-56.9%

4.3%

-5.6%

$198,381

2.9%

Kansas City, MO

-36.0%

-37.3%

-41.6%

4.5%

$351,432

3.8%

Las Vegas, NV

-36.4%

-31.8%

-28.6%

13.1%

$324,997

1.6%

Columbus, OH

-31.7%

-38.8%

-11.9%

-3.5%

$324,879

1.3%

Indianapolis, IN

-31.8%

-23.6%

-40.2%

11.8%

$290,505

1.9%

San Jose, CA

-39.1%

-16.2%

-24.5%

N/A

$1,167,354

1.9%

Austin, TX

-10.9%

-27.4%

-3.5%

-6.9%

$392,906

-1.6%

*As of May 3, using a smoothed, seven-day trailing average

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i Zillow Group Consumer Housing Trends Report 2019: https://www.zillow.com/report/2019/ 

 

SOURCE Zillow

For further information: Alex Lacter, Zillow, press@zillow.com